United Airlines delivered first quarter results that surpassed Wall Street’s revenue and profit expectations, despite operating in a softer demand environment. Management attributed the company’s resilience to an increased focus on brand loyal customers, with CEO Scott Kirby highlighting, “United’s performance is strong even in this weak environment because we’ve won the battle for brand loyal customers.” The quarter was shaped by disciplined cost management, a shift in capacity away from off-peak domestic flights, and continued investments in customer experience, including improved on-time performance and upgrades to inflight amenities. While premium cabins and loyalty revenue remained bright spots, the main cabin segment faced softness as more price-sensitive consumers pulled back on travel.
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United Airlines (UAL) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $13.21 billion vs analyst estimates of $13.13 billion (5.4% year-on-year growth, 0.6% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.91 vs analyst estimates of $0.74 (23.8% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.23 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.28 billion (9.3% margin, 4% miss)
- Operating Margin: 4.6%, up from 0.8% in the same quarter last year
- Revenue Passenger Miles: 59.52 billion, up 2.09 billion year on year
- Market Capitalization: $25.64 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions United Airlines’s Q1 Earnings Call
- Jamie Baker (JPMorgan): Asked how United’s margin outlook would change in a recession scenario. CEO Scott Kirby responded that margins could ultimately be higher after a downturn due to industry-wide reductions in unprofitable capacity and United’s strengthened brand loyalty.
- Andrew Didora (Bank of America): Inquired about additional cost levers if the revenue environment worsens. CFO Mike Leskinen explained that United has multiple areas for efficiency, including procurement and technology, and expects further cost improvements even after strong Q1 performance.
- Conor Cunningham (Melius Research): Questioned whether focusing on eliminating “spill traffic” carriers would become a bigger priority. Kirby replied that United’s strategy centers on serving its own customers rather than targeting competitors, with capacity decisions driven by demand trends.
- Catherine O’Brien (Goldman Sachs): Sought clarity on the drivers behind the company’s ability to maintain EPS guidance despite revenue declines. Leskinen cited fuel cost relief, cost management, and proactive capacity cuts as key factors.
- Brandon Oglenski (Barclays): Asked about the prudence of maintaining high domestic capacity growth rates amid unit revenue declines. Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella emphasized that capacity decisions have been “undeniably good” for United and that the company remains focused on balancing market share and margin.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking forward, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the implementation and customer adoption of Starlink Wi-Fi across United’s fleet, (2) the impact of further capacity adjustments on load factors and yield, and (3) the continued momentum of premium cabin and loyalty program revenue. Progress on these fronts, along with updates on aircraft supply and potential tariff implications, will be important markers of United’s execution and adaptability.
United Airlines currently trades at $75.74, up from $67.06 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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